Just a quick update on the referendum. Firstly, impressed to see the No campaign has taken out adverts on the UK polling report website. Secondly, the polls are now showing the No campaign in the lead, suggesting we’ll be sticking with First Past the Post after all. Nick Clegg has been criticised for failing to hold out for a more radical reform, presumably on the basis that voters would have shown more interest in a change that made more of a difference (see my previous post – Andrew Gilligan has also commented on this for The Telegraph, but he’s got a slightly checkered record as a journalist so I’m ignoring him). But, if you actually look at the figures, it’s those who showed up uninterested in earlier polls who are now saying No. If the 20% or so of respondents who “didn’t know” or who “would not vote” in earlier estimates actually stay home, the relative consistency of Yes vote figures form their initial lead suggests the Yes campaign might yet surge. Or perhaps that’s just wishful thinking.